Archive

Author Archive for Wouter Sturkenboom


UK Election: A hung parliament

UK Elections - Brexit

The lack of a Conservative majority realises a hung parliament. The impact of this on Brexit is hard to predict Markets are likely to move into ‘risk-off’ mode seeing a decline in sterling, UK equites and gilts Investors should prepare for increased market volatility as we expect a chaotic and difficult time for Westminster Russell

French Election

Macron wins French Presidential election

In line with the polls, Emmanuel Macron cruised to an easy victory in the second round of the French presidential election, taking 66% of the vote. Macron’s party, En Marche! is also doing well in the polls for the June parliamentary elections1. Which may mean that Macron’s power to implement reforms could be bigger than

May 8, 2017 Categories: Market Updates, Markets
Brexit

Brexit heats up: 4 things to watch

With the outcome of last year’s Brexit vote paving the way for the UK to leave the European Union (EU), British Prime Minister May began the formal divorce proceedings last month. And now, she has surprisingly called for a snap election, earlier than expected, on 8 June. In the meantime, I keep hearing from investors,

Apr 26, 2017 Categories: Market Updates, Markets

French presidential election: Macron and Le Pen run-off May 7

Although the race between the top four candidates tightened near the end, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen made it to the second round. The markets seem to consider this good news, likely because it views Macron’s policies as fiscally more conservative than Le Pen’s. In our view, the subsequent market rally – namely in

Apr 25, 2017 Categories: Market Updates
Wire-blog-geopolitical-risk

When should we care about geopolitical risk?

Between Trump, Brexit, and the coming French elections, there’s been a great deal of focus on geopolitical risks and their possible impacts on markets and investors. So how do we deal with geopolitical risk? We believe the answer lies in taking a close look at Cycle, Value and Sentiment. The power of Cycle, Value and

Brexit background – a strategist’s view

It is natural to prize social co-operation if, like mine, your country lies more than a metre below sea level. By contrast, islanders may have more mixed opinions on the merits of integration with their neighbours. From an investment strategy perspective, however, our view on Brexit is clear – it will likely lead to weaker

Multi-asset investing: making the most of High Yield

Good value asset classes are hard to find right now. And after some hefty price falls over the last year, leading to much wider spreads over Government Bonds, High Yield (HY) is starting to look like a compelling choice for multi-asset investors. But High Yield can come with high risks, and you need a robust

Quantitative easing: Draghi and the ECB opt for moderate approach

So the divergence of central banks continues. On Dec. 3 the European Central Bank (ECB) took the widely anticipated step of providing more stimulus to the European economy. It’s the first move in a December pas de deux that we expect will include a hike in U.S. interest rates after the Dec. 15-16 meeting of

Cheap oil: More fuel than foul for the economic engine

Since mid-2014, watching the price of Brent crude has been like watching a falling rock From USD $115 a barrel in June, to $80, then $60, then to just above $50 as of January 8, 2015. A dramatic plunge. For the most part, this is very good news for the global economy. But there are

Jan 15, 2015 Categories: Markets

Eurozone money & credit growth improves further

All eyes are on Europe as we monitor the global economy’s recovery, and the risk that Europe acts as a drag. But recent data is encouraging, and validates my view that the chances of recovery are better than the risk of being dragged further into the doldrums. Private credit growth came in at -1.2%yy vs

Oct 30, 2014 Categories: Markets

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