Does the recent curve flattening spell trouble for the U.S. economy as the calendar turns to 2019? Does the U.S. Treasury yield curve always foretell a recession? With the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields down to just 13 basis points,1 an active debate is raging among economists about the efficacy of
How might the ceasefire on new tariffs between the U.S. and China impact markets and economies? No new tariffs for three months At the 2018 G-20 Buenos Aires summit that concluded last weekend in Argentina, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose any new tariffs for three
How are markets reacting to the results of the U.S. midterm elections? In a widely-expected outcome, U.S. midterm elections concluded with the Democrats gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.1 The initial reaction from markets has been largely positive, with U.S. equities experiencing their largest daily
As expected, the Fed raised interest rates yesterday following its September policy meeting. Could the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China impact plans for future increases? Mission accomplished – now it’s time for the normalisation of interest rates The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) raised interest rates again yesterday, marking its
This is now the second-longest U.S. economic expansion ever. And now we are starting to see a few signs of late-cycle imbalances that show an economy on the cusp of overheating. Are the risks of a U.S. recession increasing? Signs of late-cycle imbalances This is now the second-longest U.S. economic expansion ever.1 We
In predictable fashion, the Fed increased borrowing costs again today. How long can the central bank stick to its quarterly rate-hiking rhythm? We think there are four big unanswered questions for U.S. monetary policy. Universally expected With today’s rate hike, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has now taken steps to tighten monetary policy
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With new chair Jerome Powell at the helm, the Fed increased borrowing costs today for the sixth time since the U.S. economic expansion began. Can markets expect continued rate hikes under Powell’s watch? US Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for the first time this year In Jerome Powell’s first meeting as chair, the
After an exceptionally strong year in markets, volatility has struck back in recent days. At the time of this writing, the S&P 500® Index has fallen roughly 10% from its record close on 26 January.1 Many of our clients are asking us if this is the start of a bear market. Our answer—probably not.
The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates today for the third time this year. See why we are projecting three more increases in 2018. Widely anticipated – the Fed deliver another rate hike The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered another rate hike today, raising its target policy rate by 25 basis points
