Archive

Author Archive for Paul Eitelman


To fear or not to fear the yield curve

yield curve

Does the recent curve flattening spell trouble for the U.S. economy as the calendar turns to 2019?   Does the U.S. Treasury yield curve always foretell a recession?   With the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields down to just 13 basis points,1 an active debate is raging among economists about the efficacy of

December 11, 2018 Categories: Markets
U.S. China ceasefire

U.S.-China ceasefire: Reasonable outcome for markets, brief respite for economies

How might the ceasefire on new tariffs between the U.S. and China impact markets and economies?   No new tariffs for three months   At the 2018 G-20 Buenos Aires summit that concluded last weekend in Argentina, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed not to impose any new tariffs for three

Dec 4, 2018 Categories: Geopolitics

U.S. midterm elections: Markets react.

  How are markets reacting to the results of the U.S. midterm elections?   In a widely-expected outcome, U.S. midterm elections concluded with the Democrats gaining a majority in the House of Representatives, while Republicans maintained control of the Senate.1 The initial reaction from markets has been largely positive, with U.S. equities experiencing their largest daily

Nov 8, 2018 Categories: Markets, Midterm elections
interest rates

Fed hikes rates again. Could a trade war derail future rises?

As expected, the Fed raised interest rates yesterday following its September policy meeting. Could the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China impact plans for future increases?   Mission accomplished – now it’s time for the normalisation of interest rates   The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) raised interest rates again yesterday, marking its

Sep 27, 2018 Categories: Market Updates

Are U.S. recession risks increasing?

This is now the second-longest U.S. economic expansion ever. And now we are starting to see a few signs of late-cycle imbalances that show an economy on the cusp of overheating. Are the risks of a U.S. recession increasing?   Signs of late-cycle imbalances   This is now the second-longest U.S. economic expansion ever.1 We

Sep 20, 2018 Categories: Investment Strategy
US Federal Reserve

June FOMC meeting: Slow and steady with another rate increase

In predictable fashion, the Fed increased borrowing costs again today. How long can the central bank stick to its quarterly rate-hiking rhythm? We think there are four big unanswered questions for U.S. monetary policy.   Universally expected   With today’s rate hike, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has now taken steps to tighten monetary policy

Jun 13, 2018 Categories: Investment Strategy

Markets tumble as Trump announces sweeping tariffs on China

Market Week in Review is a weekly market update on global investment news in a quick five-minute video format. It gives you easy access to some of our top investment strategists. Our experts will keep you informed of key market events and provide you with an easy-to-understand outlook on the week ahead. Subscribe to receive this

Mar 23, 2018 Categories: Market Updates
With new chair Jerome Powell at the helm, the Fed increased borrowing costs today for the sixth time since the U.S. economic expansion began. Can markets expect continued rate hikes under Powell's watch?

Hawks, doves and jays: Takeaways from first Fed rate hike under Jerome “Jay” Powell

With new chair Jerome Powell at the helm, the Fed increased borrowing costs today for the sixth time since the U.S. economic expansion began. Can markets expect continued rate hikes under Powell’s watch?   US Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for the first time this year   In Jerome Powell’s first meeting as chair, the

Mar 21, 2018 Categories: Market Updates
Volatility strikes back. Is this the start of a bear market?

Volatility strikes back. Is this the start of a bear market?

After an exceptionally strong year in markets, volatility has struck back in recent days. At the time of this writing, the S&P 500® Index has fallen roughly 10% from its record close on 26 January.1   Many of our clients are asking us if this is the start of a bear market. Our answer—probably not.

Feb 6, 2018 Categories: Market Updates, Multi-asset

Fed wraps up 2017 with another rate hike

The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates today for the third time this year. See why we are projecting three more increases in 2018.   Widely anticipated – the Fed deliver another rate hike   The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered another rate hike today, raising its target policy rate by 25 basis points

Dec 13, 2017 Categories: Geopolitics, Market Updates

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